Argentina Mess

The story of Argentina and how it slid from developed to developing is a sobering lesson in how to go from wealth to poverty. The US needs to pay attention, and New Zealand too for that matter: if you skip to the end, you'll find that where economic and political systems are controlled by powerful and exclusive elites, no matter what model is used - protectionist or free trade - failure will follow. Countries must have political and economic systems which allow a changing of the guard, people with new ideas and methods, leading to a redistribution of wealth.

Quick Economics Lesson

Brief and simple, Donald Trump cannot achieve what he's looking to do, in the way he's going about it:

Structure and Certainty Needed

Instability and uncertainty are recipes for disaster:

Duterte Faces Trial

Things are happening so fast now, I can barely keep up. Now, former president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested for crimes against humanity and as I write this, is on his way to the Hague to stand trial. He was at one time lauded as the answer to the proliferation of illegal drugs. But his methods were brutal, and saw a reign of terror unfold in the Philippines.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250311-philippine-duterte-crimes-against-humanity

The 79-year-old faces a charge of "the crime against humanity of murder", according to the ICC, for a crackdown that rights groups estimate killed tens of thousands of mostly poor men, often without proof they were linked to drugs.

Coal and China

Invest in a coal mine, it is the future:

China Electricity By Source

Elon Musk on Social Security and Medicare

Oh, Elon Musk is a problem:

Tesla Tanking

Thus far this year, Tesla's share price is down 41%. In the last few days, and since I called for people not to buy Tesla cars, and/or not do business with anyone who owns a Tesla, Tesla's market capitalisation has lost almost $200 billion. Way to go, let's keep that trend going, clearly a lot of people out there are thinking the same way.

In related news, Elon Musk and his DOGE team are said to be causing chaos with staff running social security. They're letting people go in a haphazard manner.

Efficiency gains are always desirable, but the way Musk and his minions are going about it has the appearance of causing intentional harm.

Ontario Bights Back

The premier of the Canadian province of Ontario is standing up for his people by placing a 25% charge on their electricity exported to the US states on Minnesota, Michigan and New York. It will load an average charge of $100 each month to power bills.

Tariffs are being misused, they're an ineffectual tool in this scenario. Tariffs can be effective in protecting existing industry, especially where industries are at risk of being swamped by cheap imports. Those cheap imports can be supported by subsidies from the exporting country, meaning a tariff is appropriate to level the playing field. But what Trump is saying he wants to do is revive industry. That will take years, maybe a decade or more, which just leaves consumers paying higher prices. It ends up being an exercise in self harm.

Restrained Britain

The British are usually restrained, polite, wait in queues and say everything is nice. If someone is late, they say nice to see you, or the food tasted nice, the music was nice and the person they just met seemed nice. But, the exception is when they get really pissed off, and decide to relentlessly take the mickey.

Turns out, Elon Musk has seriously pissed off the British. They're doing something about it. How nice of them:

Canada's New Prime Minister

I learned something new today, Canada can have a completely unelected prime minister. Mark Carney is the new PM, and yet he doesn't hold a seat, and he's by no means the first.

US Trade War Economics Lesson

A useful lesson in how tariffs and uncertainty in business ends up wrecking the economy. Everyone should take note - be careful what you wish for. 

I have embedded a video below which covers some important areas. Caleb Ragland at the end makes good points, but I think he's misguided, it appears the Trump administration intends harm on the US economy and to international trade. 

Mr Ragland is president of the American Soybean Association. He's from Kentucky, a US state very similar to New Zealand, agriculture is important to both, although NZ has the greater GDP. Ragland's soybean crop is exported to China. China alone imports 60% of all exported soybean. So, a trade war could wreck the livelihoods of soybean growers, as China may substitute US exports with those of other countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay or even Australia. 

Early in the video CBS look at dairy farming in the US. Lack of clarity with regard immigration policies, leads to uncertainty. The claim is made that dairy farms in the US cannot function without using undocumented workers. That sounds unusual to my ears, as NZ is the world's largest dairy exporter and it too has labour shortages, but the country brings in farm labour from places like the Philippines. They're in the country legally and have a path to citizenship and eventually farm ownership (or as sharemilkers). Tariffs will not help as input costs rise, giving the dairy farmer an added burden.

What I'm describing is a perfect storm: the US economy could be brought to its knees. Warren Buffett always cautions; never bet against the US economy. Well, this time he may be wrong. 

China's Shipbuilding Industry - Problem?

The US Trump administration have announced new measures intended to promote its own domestic shipbuilding industry. One aspect of this, Chinese vessels will be charged extra for berthing at US ports. But, will this have the effect desired, and if it does, what impact will this have on the economy of the US?

Check this out here: https://www.reuters.com/business/trumps-shipbuilding-plan-could-upend-ocean-cargo-industry-companies-warn-2025-03-07/

The main effect will be to load costs onto American consumers. Worldwide, it could lead to lower costs as Chinese vessels may start to avoid US ports, leading to more capacity available elsewhere, resulting in lower rates for shipping to non-US ports. It's so complicated, it is very hard to predict the result, but one thing I can say for certain: it does not make sense to make merchant vessels in the US as they'd be much more expensive and that's even if you can get one built. There aren't enough workers in the sector to supply many more ships being built.

And then, China won't sit around doing nothing about this. Like their recent stopping importing US lumber, they may target other goods, or refuse to export key minerals to the US, further skewing markets. Basically, the US consumer pays, and US workers will lose their jobs, just so a few extra merchant marine ships get built. This would make the real cost of building a US merchant ship, 50 times greater than competitors.

China has also started buying port operations around the world. But, something it hasn't done is open military bases. So, are these civil operations a problem, or is the investment beneficial?

The following are two videos outlining some of the issues. However, given the US is now setting out to alienate its closest neighbours and allies, dealing with China seems sensible as they aren't as capricious.

United States Arms Sales

All sales from the US to its allies need to be closely examined. Should current sales be halted, and what of that equipment already in service, are they any good?

And if you're reading this, then good for you as you found this despite Google heavily suppressing talk on this subject.

Canada for the Win

Heh, Donald Trump has walked back from his trade war, no doubt because an adult sat him down and pointed out how he was destroying the US economy and allegiances worldwide:

DOGE Coup?

DOGE trying to sack air traffic controllers? The message here, find savings but stay sane. Sack Elon Musk, he's a moron:

WWIII Has Started?

I'm not convinced that WWIII has actually started yet, but I am prepared to concede that we may be in the final days before it kicks off.

Now the US is one of the bad guys, various alliances become possible: CANZUK - Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. EU adds Canada. China, which doesn't want a powerful Russia to its north, and definitely does not want Russia to occupy the Stans of Central Asia, may support Europe (a bit of a stretch but who would have seen the US joining Russia), Japan and South Korea join NATO without the US, and SE Asia is now at risk but Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand need to team up.

Five Eyes

With United States President, Donald Trump being compromised and a Russian asset, Putin puppet; the question now is should the Five Eyes partners share intelligence with the US?

Then, what of all that US military equipment Five Eyes partners buy from the US? It is all operated by software controlled by the US which could be turned off mid-battle. This equipment is effectively worthless.

Who are Five Eyes? The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand operate listening stations which monitor every communication across the globe. In New Zealand its main listening post is located at Waihopai in the South Island; this is what such a base looks like, as you drive around the place, you will see them:

The bubble structures are covering dishes, preventing people seeing which satellite is being tracked.

Reform UK Splintering

Well, that didn't take long, Reform UK are starting to fall apart, and not even a year has gone by since last year's election. Reform leader, Nigel Farage is in a difficult position as he's a friend of Donald Trump, but Trump is no friend of the UK. This makes Farage unelectable, and his fellow Reform MP's know it.

JD Dunce

The British are ridiculing US Vice President, that thicko JD Vance, for his ignorant statement. For the record, Britain lost 636 soldiers in Afghanistan (and Iraq), and they went to Afghanistan after the US invoked NATO's Article 5. Heh, Vance, shove your random country remark up your junta (bonus points awarded for guessing the reference).

JD Vance can talk, the US hasn't won a war since WWII. Convince me I'm wrong.

Daily Star UK

US Trade War Benefits New Zealand

China has suspended imports of lumber from the United States, in retaliation for the imposing of additional tariffs on their exports to the US.

This benefits New Zealand as China is NZ's biggest trading partner. 60% of all wood exported to China comes from four producers; namely, Russia, United States, New Zealand and Canada. From this category of products NZ exports mostly logs (timber), and then sawn timber (lumber) to a lesser extent. I notice media are reporting China's suspension of imports, but then talk of logs, so they may be incorrectly describing, or if it is US logs affected (and not just sawn timber per se), that profits NZ greatly. 

For those interested in the process, the logs are trimmed and cut to length, then stockpiled according to grade. Machines that process the logs are often the Waratah brand, machines made in New Zealand and exported worldwide. This is what a Waratah looks like, it is the processor fitted on the end of an excavator dipper arm: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX1d6c-clrM and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwZJqI9xxWE

With Donald Trump proving he's insane, some stand to gain. The below video mentions how many of the lumber mills in the US are actually owned by Canadian interests, so profits resulting from Trump's move will ultimately find their way back to Canada. File this under the law of unintended consequences. Increases in prices within the US, benefit Canadian companies owning US-based operations.

James Carville on Trump

The conclusion must be, Donald Trump intends harm on the United States:

Don't Buy Tesla EV's

What can you do to protest the treachery of Trump and his alignment with Putin and Russian foreign policy?

Don't buy a Tesla and do not do business with anyone who owns a Tesla.

Tesla is controlled by Elon Musk, the head of DOGE (but he's not in charge really - very strange). Imagine the look on Musk's face as he has to shutter his car plants. 

Tesla has a share market capitalisation of $891 billion. Make that drop to less than a billion. 

Do it in the name of freedom, and for the planet. Tesla EV's are the worst cars in the world, they're complete crap, imagine how many African children died mining the minerals in those volatile batteries. Yeah, so make Musk bankrupt.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-sales-decline-across-scandinavia-musk-faces-test-brand-2025-03-03/

Sales are down 42-48% in Europe. Let's get that to 99% worldwide.

Priti Patel Challenges Farage

 Farage's weasel words are being called out:

UK Backs Ukraine

I thought this innovative, British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer is extending a loan to Ukraine, backed by seized Russian money. This means Russia pays for the defender as well as its own aggression.

Starmer got off to a bad start, and looked very much the authoritarian. His voice is also irritating, which doesn't help either. But through this latest spat, he is looking more like a leader.

Meanwhile, Reform UK's leader, Nigel Farage has been silent. He's a friend of Donald Trump and likes to think he has influence with the President. In the past, Farage has been fully backing Ukraine and on GB News he predicted Russia's resounding defeat. Now that Trump has effectively switched sides, and looks very much the Quisling, Farage finds himself stranded, neither Arthur, nor Martha. Will Reform splinter as a result?

Susan Rice: 'this was a setup'

Former United States ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice makes a good argument about what exactly is at stake with this swift pivot of the US into isolationism and emboldening adversaries, namely Russia and China.

I haven't written about this before, but what can be done in Ukraine? I've always said there was no defeating Russia on the ground, that was fantasy, but Russia could be held up and find itself unable to gain more ground. To do this requires European resolve, and requires those arms sent to Ukraine to go into service. Much of what gets sent does not arrive, I've seen estimates which put the depletion of arms at 80%, meaning only 20% of what is sent ends up at the frontline. The rest gets sold off by criminals in the Ukraine to buyers in Central and South America, and Africa. 

Without the US, Europe can hold off Putin, but they'll need to get themselves organised, and reform Ukraine itself, which is the most corrupt country in Europe.

The question also needs to be asked; is Trump all there in the brain, or is he working for Russia? He certainly does not seem to realise what he is dealing with in someone like Putin (it is claimed Putin worked in Wellington, NZ selling Bata shoes, some people swear he was there as an intelligence officer - I'm not kidding, this is possible). Putin is well educated, probably even a nice guy to have a beer with, but he is also utterly ruthless. And Russians don't care how long it takes, or how many die, just so long as they get what they're after.

Unfaithful Ally?

Some choice words...

Trump, Vance, Zelenskyy and THAT Meeting

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was visiting the White House to meet Donald Trump and JD Vance. In the public segment while meeting with the media, question time turned into a cringeworthy free-for-all, with finger pointing, accusation and counter-accusation.

I never thought I'd live to see the day. Never before has such a thing been witnessed. We can imagine what is being said behind closed doors, but now we got to see it. 

I agree with Karl Rove, the only winner was Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin. He'll be laughing his tits off.

The way I see it; Trump and Vance displayed weakness. Allies will be concerned, they've had to deal with a leaderless Biden administration and now it appears the US is led by men unable to conduct themselves in a sober and measured manner.

Net Zero Total Nonsense

Coal is far from dead...