Nikola Jokić is a Freak

Wow, did I get this one wrong. I thought the Miami Heat would likely win the NBA Finals as their coach has been there before, and their opponents the Denver Nuggets were up for the first time. My thinking was you usually have to lose a final to win a final, and this being their first time, they'd lose it and then go on to create a dynasty.

Nope, turns out Nikola Jokic is something of a freak and has lifted the whole Nuggets roster. He's inspirational, and the Heat cannot seem to contain him. And when he's off the court, his mere presence on the sidelines makes a difference:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/37829210/nuggets-keep-poise-nikola-jokic-5th-foul-win-game-4-nba-finals

NBA: Clippers Massive Choke

I've said it many times; the Los Angeles Clippers will never win a championship. They don't know how to win, the club lacks the right culture. With all its talent, how could they give up a 3-1 series lead and lose in game 7 to the Denver Nuggets. It is just incredible how they clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Mind you, the Nuggets played good team tactics, never allowing the Clippers easy looks. More often than not a Nuggets player contested shots and if they didn't, the Clippers shooter was probably in his secondary spot anyway. This told in the end, the Clippers looked awful.

Have a look at this highlights reel of the fourth quarter, it shows just how bad the Clippers were, and how organised the Nuggets were as well:

NBA Season 2019/20

Last season my picks were 50/50 at best. This year I've got no idea which team will emerge at the top. They're all so close, all looking good, and there has been so many big moves of top players between teams.

Having said that, I like the look of the Denver Nuggets, and the Milwaukee Bucks. Of course I always support the Houston Rockets but I'm not convinced they can get the most out of Russell Westbrook. He's just too much of a ball hog.

The Los Angeles Lakers can never be discounted either, they've got a powerful lineup.

Teams that will disappoint? Maybe the Los Angeles Clippers, they've never won a title, old habits are hard to break. The Brooklyn Nets won't be a real force until Kevin Durant is back from injury, so their fans will have to wait until 2020/21.

Surprises? Not so much of a surprise really; the Philadelphia 76ers, look for them to be the main challenger to the Bucks in the east. Oh and the Toronto Raptors, even without Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors may surprise once again.

Summary:

Looking Good;

Denver Nuggets
Milwaukee Bucks

Don't Discount;

Los Angeles Lakers
Houston Rockets

Disappointing;

Los Angeles Clippers
Brooklyn Nets

Surprises;

Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors.

Denver Nuggets v Cleveland Cavaliers - Statistics

Today's NBA game between the Nuggets and the Cavaliers produced a set of figures even more stark than the earlier Warriors v Grizzlies match-up.

I followed the Nuggets v Cavaliers game from the 8:10 mark in the third quarter, until the end of the game. This was to compare apples with apples. This time I made a note of open looks, not just when shots were taken.

From the 8:10 mark in the third quarter, until game end; the Denver Nuggets took a shot from an offensive set that involved three or fewer passes, 100% of the time. 47% of those shots were completely open looks.

The Cleveland Cavaliers took such a shot 99% of the time, 45% of those being completely open looks.

This 'open look' figure would be higher if I included lay-ups, which I decided not to include, only set or jump shots in open play.

The Nuggets started out 13 points down and ended the game 16 points adrift. This has got to be a failed strategy then, that of bombing away without considering whether the shot is truly on or not. But then, were the Nuggets trying to win? Or were they maintaining an open style of play with a lot of shots, in order to entertain, with the result being secondary.

During the monitored period of play there were no suspect calls of the type I've mentioned; that is where the referee relieves the pressure for a favoured attacking team by calling an off-the-ball foul, but then the offense generally flowed for both sides.

The only dodgy call was in the third quarter when the Cavaliers Kyrie Irving was called out of bounds. He had stepped out but then put a foot back in, the other foot being in the air, when he regained control of the ball. Someone may like to correct me if I'm wrong, but generally in basketball, if you're out of bounds, you re-establish yourself inbound by having a piece of you touching the floor, which Irving had actually done. I figured this incorrect call was designed to hand the Nuggets possession and keep the game close coming up to half time. But then I could be getting paranoid.

I'm going to stick my neck out and call this matter proven. There appears a modus operandi whereby players are left open most often on the second or third pass of an offensive set, and when behind on the scoreboard the tactics employed rarely change, the spectacle must be maintained. The teams are not playing to win.

What tactics should the Nuggets have employed? The approach that seemed to get them the best results was to slow their offense down and feed their big man, Jokic. He would either draw shooting fouls or get a close two points. They did not do this often enough, preferring to try and look good instead. Then on defense they did not foul enough. They needed to send Cavaliers players to the free throw line more often. But then my approach lacks pizazz, hmm.