There have been recent polls which show a trend back to the two horse race of National and Labour. The two previously dominated the electoral landscape under first-past-the-post in New Zealand. I am not sure how long this trend will continue exactly, but it will end and then I predict a splintering or segmentation of the electorate. That's because the influence of smaller parties is more powerful, meaning a vote for a smaller party is worth more. A lot more, so long as they can win an electoral seat or get over the 5% threshold.
I talk about the failings of the NZ Government and the electoral system in my book Snob's Guide to New Zealand: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1727804147. It's available on Kindle and in paperback from Amazon.
We are also witnessing the development of an unchallengeable political class which rules permanently. National are a good example of this, their leadership team seem to have been around forever. Labour are not as bad but they still have the likes of Damien O'Connor who seems to not know how to get a real job.
The reason the same faces keep popping up is due to the way MMP works. The party decides their own rate of renewal by selecting people for their party lists. Those in the know get preferential treatment, but often those receiving top spots are the very ones with no new ideas and who should be demoted. In a first-past-the-post system even a prime minister can be removed by challenging them and beating them in their own seat. This cannot happen with MMP as the prime minister would be back in parliament as they're always number one on their party list.
At the moment NZ has the worst of all worlds; the same old two party set-up has emerged, and the ruling class decide who will be the member of parliament, voters no longer get a direct say in their selection.
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