Don't be surprised if New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern decides to step down and takes up a UN job. It could happen and becomes highly likely if the Greens, Labour's partner on confidence and supply, start polling below the 5% threshold.
Think of it like this; Ardern has already finished the race in first. It was close but she got there. But she only gets the prize because two very minor parties support her and one of them has now dropped below that critical 5%. If the Greens go the same way, that means come the next election she's looking at being Leader of the Opposition and a former Prime Minister. That doesn't have quite the same cachet now does it. And then her record will be closely examined. Then finally, to have her leadership challenged would be very unbecoming.
So the way I see it, she has to step down and go out on top. To overseas markets she's much more valuable now. The future for her lies in cashing in overseas, if she sticks around in NZ, all that offers is uncertainty and a slide.
Back in 2017 I was the first to predict a Labour victory. Everyone else thought it couldn't happen. After I noticed a wave of people all saying they were voting Labour, and pointed it out, a few commentators and bloggers jumped on board. When the inevitable happened, they all claimed to have been first (surprise surprise). Well, note this prediction and if you use it and I'm right, kindly have the good grace to apply credit where it is due, and that would be me.
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