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January 26, 2017

Market Report UK

Looking at the UK, a situation I've been well aware of for some time never improves. Depending on your point of view, this is either a problem or an opportunity.

I'm talking about the supply of construction materials, namely sand and gravel supplies; and in the broader context all quarried materials, ready-mix concrete, and other products that consume crushed and processed stone.

The UK has the problem of steadily depleting reserves. The sand and gravel reserve base is most stark, there the replacement rate is a low 61%. What that means is that for every 100 tonne of sand sold, only 61 tonne is replaced. What am I going on about?

If you're extracting and processing sand, an important component in concrete and asphalt particularly, you need to have the stuff in the ground to extract. Imagine all of the UK's reserves being in one place, a huge tract of land (it isn't, actually it's spread out amongst hundreds of sand pits). As you dig, process and sell the sand just below the surface, the hole keeps getting bigger. Then to replace what you sell, you buy some land off the neighbour, but never as much as the volume you sell out of the gate. Do you see? Eventually your reserves run critically low and you go out of business. No construction supplies business for you.

But wait, that's not the first and last word on the subject I hear you say, there are other options which can be explored, and you'd be right. Dredging offshore for sand below the surface of the water. Okay, that's possible and already done. Then there is manufactured sand, never quite as good but you can do that. Okay, that's done too but the hard rock quarry environment is only just managing to increase its reserves from where they are now and not at the pace the natural sand deposits are being depleted. Then you can import sand from somewhere else I hear you say. Fine that too I answer, but sand is high volume low value and barging from other countries is expensive.

So what is going to happen to the UK? The price of sand and gravel must rise, that's what. And rise a lot over the next twenty years. That's because it takes fifteen years just to get a new sand and gravel pit on stream from initial proposal, so even if they went gangbusters right from this day forward they'd still end up sand critical.

This is a lesson in not allowing environmental nut-jobs anywhere near proper planning, real world industry with consequences. But for the investor, this is heaven sent. Investing in existing sand and gravel reserves is money in the bank. That message comes with qualifications though, naturally, as the company that does the work has to be well managed.

What candidates exist to get involved with? The list is; LafargeHolcim (which owns the UK's Aggregate Industries), HeidelbergCement (which owns Hanson), CRH (Tarmac), CEMEX and Breedon. Of these, Breedon is the UK specialist and heavily into rock products, see them here...https://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:BREE

Breedon are small and quite acquisitive, you can see their share price keeps climbing and their price to earnings is quite high at 31., maybe too high. I'll leave it for you to decide if you're comfortable with that.

Then you can also look for private companies to invest in, with focus on sand and gravel. Most of these are tightly held, I'm not saying any of the following are for sale or any share of them, but they're good businesses and this is the type of thing to look for:

http://www.rotherhamsandandgravel.co.uk/about.aspx
http://www.sandandgravel.uk.com
http://www.bromfieldsand-gravel.co.uk/Content.aspx?id=1

Sand and gravel UK.

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