US Agriculture Challenged

This video is dated but it sums up where US farmers are at right now. The trade war has made things much worse. 

Farmers are the collateral damage, in effect, and China will not be back buying a lot of US output.

Keir Starmer's Island of Strangers

Now the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer has normalised discussion about immigration, the issues can be openly discussed. In a recent speech, Starmer warned of Britain becoming an island of strangers. 

Back in the 1960's prominent Conservative politician, Enoch Powell made his Rivers of Blood speech about issues related to immigration. He has been pilloried for that speech, and was effectively cancelled from polite society, so will the same happen to Starmer?

The question does need to be asked. 

From Enoch Powell's speech (bold added): But while, to the immigrant, entry to this country was admission to privileges and opportunities eagerly sought, the impact upon the existing population was very different. For reasons which they could not comprehend, and in pursuance of a decision by default, on which they were never consulted, they found themselves made strangers in their own country.

From Keir Starmer (bold added): ...these rules become even more important. Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.

While the two speeches differ, they are materially the same in that they call for national unity, and both tend to 'other' outsiders or those who come from elsewhere. What do you think?

Here's an interesting response published on the LBC website: Keir Starmer’s ‘island of strangers’ immigration warning is a xenophobic dog whistle

Another critique: https://theconversation.com/keir-starmers-immigration-plans-research-shows-you-dont-beat-the-far-right-by-becoming-them-256499

Scott Bessent Looked Shaken

I've just seen the announcement of the interim trade deal between the US and China. In that deal, they've agreed on a 90 day pause, with tariff rates falling to 10% on the Chinese side, and 30% on the US side. That's down 115 percentage points from the current highs. It also appears other measures have been suspended, such as the refusal to supply rare earth elements.

Looking and listening to Scott Bessent the US Secretary of the Treasury, he appeared shaken, his voice was quavering, and his demeanour weak. What I think has happened is China has read the US the Riot Act and said, in effect, you need us, we don't need you. And the US buckled. 

Now what I think will happen is for negotiations to take forever. And while that happens, China will punish the US. 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/12/business/us-china-trade-deal-announcement-intl-hnk

US-China Trade Deal

When I read this kind of thing, I think to myself, do the Americans understand how China is likely to approach this? Firstly, they'll agree on something, and then back at home they'll put the price up for US importers, especially on those critical materials. No way will they just sit back and take a loss. Then, when it comes to opening up, they'll do the opposite by making life very difficult for American companies. They'll use environmental, health and safety compliance to prevent American companies access. Currently, Caterpillar has their Asian base headquartered in China, they moved there from Japan about 20 years ago. They'll begin to make theirs, and other US companies lives difficult.

Shipping will be restricted and de-prioritised. US ships will be loaded last, made to wait at the back of the queue. Lastly, China will shop in the US but never buy as everything is unsuitable - they'll say. This trade war initiated by Trump will be very expensive for the US; US consumers will pay higher prices, receive slower shipments, and US companies hoping to operate within China, or sell them anything at all, will face major hurdles.

And the 10% baseline tariff is unworkable. If the US had made it 2%, likely few would object, but 10% is basically saying go away, we don't want your goods.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/11/us-china-trade-talks-geneva-intended-de-escalate-tensions-lutnick

The White House has announced that a trade deal with China has been struck after two days of talks in Geneva, while Beijing has hailed “important first steps.”

DOGE

Turns out that DOGE probably wasn't about spending cuts, as those cuts have been cancelled. What it may have been about is building a massive database for building a social credit system, basically monitoring and controlling everyone. 

It does make you wonder as US defense spending has increased. Where are the savings?

Diddy Trial

 A key witness in the P Diddy trial cannot be found. 

UK-US Trade Deal

What happened closely reflects what I predicted:

What do I think will likely happen? NZ will sit on the fence but buckle to US demands, thus wrecking the entire NZ economy. Australia will buckle sooner and they'll go downhill as a result. The UK will buckle immediately. 

kenhorlor.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2025-04-30T01:56:00%2B12:00&max-results=15

NZ Beef to US

New Zealand beef exports to the US are booming right now. Sheep and beef farmers are receiving record prices, largely due to a drought in the US affecting stock numbers, and the cost of farming in the US. This news comes off the back of record log exports to China, now that China has stopped buying from the US.

So, not all bad news then. 

https://mia.co.nz/record-month-for-new-zealand-red-meat-exports-for-march/

Beef exports to the US rose by 55 per cent by volume to 23,795 tonnes and the value was up 105 per cent to $285 million.

What we already knew goes mainstream

China Taking Over

I'm from the world of concrete and so I know this to be true: in the last three years China has poured more concrete than the US poured over the hundred years of the twentieth century.

The world is turning on its axis, China is now ascendant.

And when it comes to universities, China rules. We'll all need to start learning Chinese as much of their research is in that language. Heh, I can read a little Japanese so I am at least familiar with Chinese characters. You know the type of thing, Chinese on the page looks like a chicken walked into a pot of ink and then wandered across the page. The good part of knowing this is that at least it's not as hard as English to learn.

Don't Believe A Word

India v Pakistan 2025

Oh dear, predictions of an Indian strike on targets in Pakistan appear to have been correct. I hope they can sort things out. We don't need these two being at war. Is it a proxy conflict? Pakistan is traditionally backed by China, while India has been backed by Russia in the past, but these days they've been buddying up to the US and Israel. 

While India is much larger than Pakistan, on the ground it is usually Pakistan that performs well. If we go back to the days of the British Raj, the British used to recruit heavily from the regions that now include Pakistan, along with the Sikh population. 

Met Gala 2025

I'm not heavily into fashion, but it was good to see two New Zealanders in the spotlight at the Met Gala in New York this year.

Rosé looked lovely https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/gettyimages-2213619226-68196b45b68cd.jpg?crop=0.849xw:0.882xh;0.0731xw,0.118xh&resize=980:* 

Lorde looked the best overall, well done Kiwi: https://api.photon.aremedia.net.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2025/05/gettyimages-2213605542-6819465e68e72-scaled.jpg?fit=650%2C975&resize=650%2C975

Trump Movie Tariff

Now we hear of 100% US tariffs being place on 'foreign made' movies. This begs the question; what exactly is foreign: are we talking about movies in a language other than English, or movies produced by studios outside of US control? 

As I understand it, these days movies are made all over the show, with special effects and various scenes being filmed in multiple locations. The industry is still centred in the US, but these same US capital sources produce the movies everywhere. Is a movie deemed US-made if 50.01% of it is 'made' in the US?

I saw a recent video where bicycle parts from China were shipped to Mexico, assembled into a bicycle there and then imported to the US, thus legally evading China tariffs as the parts had been transformed into something.

Movies may go the same way, with components being made elsewhere, but the movie being assembled in the US. I don't know the industry all that well, but I'm thinking now is not the time to invest in the cinema business.

UK Labour and the Tories Panic

If the UK Labour and Conservative parties aren't panicking, then they should be. Over the weekend, Reform UK led by Nigel Farage has achieved an amazing result across England in local authority elections. Reform now control ten councils, and have a large share of others. Off this base, Reform can now get ready for the next general election. Councillors on the ground, being reported by local media, out there meeting people every day, can drive change and get out the vote.

Nigel Farage is the biggest influence on UK politics in the 21st century. We are witnessing a revolution, and other countries should take note. 

How long has UK prime minister Keir Starmer got? He must be gone, he's the worst prime minister the UK has ever had.

New Zealand Defence Announcement

New Zealand's government announced spending on replacement helicopters today. The announcement comes before the announcement of what will actually be bought, at some point in the future. So, let's see if I've got this right; today, an announcement was made, announcing a plan will be put in place, then that body will announce at some distant point, what it plans to purchase. Then, no doubt, it will then be announced that the purchase is going ahead, followed by an announcement that a contract has been signed. 

What New Zealand has at the moment is government by announcement. Nothing actually gets done. Instead, intentions are announced as if that means something, which of course it doesn't. 

The government today, announced a later announcement, which will announce something in the future, which will then be announced when confirmed. That's what happened today.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/559866/defence-force-maritime-helicopters-to-be-replaced-at-cost-of-over-2-billion

The government has set aside $2 billion from this year's Budget to replace the navy's Seasprite helicopters, boosting their disaster response and aid capabilities.

A further $957 million over four years will be spent on Defence Force activities, personnel and property.

A spokesperson later confirmed this largely operational spending was additional money in the coming Budget, and was separate to the $12b estimated spend over 15 years from the Defence Capability Plan.

Defence Minister Judith Collins announced the spending in a pre-Budget announcement alongside Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, Associate Defence Minister Chris Penk, and top brass from the Defence Force at Whenuapai Air Force base in Auckland.

She confirmed the government would look to purchase five new helicopters, but exactly when they would arrive would depend on a business case being developed before the end of the year.

(bold added)

Local Elections England 2025

Update: We are witnessing a revolution in the UK. Labour could barely get a councillor elected, while the Conservatives lost all their Tory controlled councils. The Liberal Democrats now control three councils, while Reform UK now control ten. There is now a turquoise coloured wall right across the middle of England, providing a launch pad for the Reform party at the next General Election. These councils can, in the immediate sense, start to resist all the Labour lunacy.

Labour are being wiped out in local elections in England. Counting is currently underway and they're in fourth or fifth place in terms of council seats won.

Reform UK are the clear winners, with the Conservatives currently second.

With a result this bad, UK prime minister, Keir Starmer must be gone. Labour always pride themselves on controlling councils, and off that base they launch their campaigns to control the country. But, it appears that will no longer be the case. All this net zero nonsense at the local level can go heave, and not before time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2025/england/results

Bob Jones Dead at 85

New Zealand's larger than life property investor, writer and raconteur, Bob Jones has died after a short illness, aged 85. A lot will be written about him, and a few may mention he backed the Wellington trans-gender madam, Carmen to run for mayor of Wellington back in 1977. She lost, but people noticed a long delay in announcing the result, they smelt a rat. On the Monday back at work, everyone in Wellington would say they'd voted for Carmen. Jones believed the result was rigged, and no-one doubted it.

I forget the year, but back at about the same time as Carmen ran for mayor, Jones had the side of a building in Wellington painted with the sign; Mat Rata Reads Comics. Mat Rata was a Labour politician at the time, and Jones had seen him reading a comic at the airport. 

Then, leading up to the 1984 general election, Jones formed the New Zealand Party. Broadly speaking, we'd call this party libertarian today. It was established to remove NZ prime minister Robert Muldoon from office. They split the right-wing vote and Labour were elected. With its main goal achieved, and with Labour stealing all of its policies, the party soon folded thereafter.

Since then, Jones established himself as a critic and commentator, sometimes wrong, often right, but always humorous and a good read. He wrote several books, both non-fiction and fiction, but his best book was his first, Jones on Property. (1977).

Jones on Property is about investing in real estate, and it is the best book written on the subject. Key takeaway: there is glamour in industrial. He goes into why investors should avoid residential, and looks at the pros and cons of retail, office and industrial investment. Of all options, he preferred industrial. For any investor, this book is so valuable because he tells the reader why different people in the industry do what they do, and what they're thinking about. He looks at the banker, the investor, the tenant, and the property vendor. His insight is valuable, revealing, for instance, that prospective tenants of an industrial building will check out the office space first, before even checking whether the actual reason for the building existing meets their particular needs. He concludes that new carpet for the office will reward the investor better than anything else done to the building, dollar for dollar. He also wonders why investors insist on checking out the whole building, as he often bought industrial real estate after simply driving past. He commented that he'd yet to find an industrial building selling minus a back wall. 

Another important reason for investing in industrial (and I've found this out myself); the tenants are often very handy types, with hammers and screwdrivers and all the tools. Thus, they clear blocked toilets, fix that leaking roof, and basically never complain. Plus, their factory equipment is often bolted to the floor and so they won't be leaving in a hurry when you put up the rent. 

But of course, he does remind the reader of the three rules of investing in real estate: location, location, location. Thus, multi-level office towers in Upper Hutt are no good. He talks a lot about investing in the type of building surrounded by other similar types of building. Don't invest in an orphan.

Radio New Zealand's website has this short piece on him, I haven't read it carefully, it's probably all lies:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/559715/businessman-and-politician-sir-bob-jones-dead-at-85

 

Do Trade Deficits Matter?

According to Victor Davis Hanson, trade deficits do matter if they're sustained while national debt to GDP is high, like that of the US debt to GDP ratio of 110%.

China's Mayor Economy

I learnt something listening to Prof. Keyu Jin describing how China achieved growth, and how it continues to develop fast. She describes a model centred around mayors, who are not simply time serving politicians, but entrepreneurs competing with one another. Cities and regions are not sitting back living off property or real estate taxes, but instead they promote successful businesses which are then taxed. Business profits come before property tax. 

Basically, the west stifles entrepreneurship, while China rewards it.