What's Coming Next from Donald Trump?

Donald Trump talked to reporters after he arrived at Joint Base Andrews, near Washington DC. He outlined further measures, including stopping aid to South Africa, and tariffs on the EU but not on the UK at this stage. He seemed to suggest that the trade balance between the UK and US can be addressed. 

New Zealand Rugby Weakening

New Zealand is going to have to get used to its all-conquering rugby team ceasing to be the powerhouse it once was. They've just gone down to South Africa 27-31 in a game they should have put to bed in the second half. Admittedly, they were playing away at Ellis Park, a stadium with a fearsome reputation, much like NZ's own Eden Park. 

Rugby is not as popular as it once was in NZ, but even then there is a lot of misinformation being peddled about NZ's rugby history. Before the Second World War, rugby was not NZ's most popular sport, that was tennis (and croquet), followed closely by golf. Evidence of this can be seen across the country when visiting old parks, they always have tennis courts and often also have a nine hole golf course handy as well. However, these days newly created recreation areas have skateboard and BMX areas, and a basketball half-court. 

Although, when talking large ball team sports, rugby did dominate, perhaps sitting in third place overall. Then, when servicemen returned from the war, they were keen to play a physical contact sport and they had their sons take up the game as well. Rugby took off, with ascendency being reached in the 1970's and 1980's, culminating in NZ winning the first Rugby World Cup in 1987. 

There is a parallel here with Uruguay winning the very first Soccer World Cup in 1930. Both NZ and Uruguay have small populations but very good football teams. However, over time Uruguay has been surpassed by other countries. They're still good, among the best in fact, but they haven't won a World Cup since 1950. NZ had better brace itself for a similar slide.

For NZ, part of the problem is player depth. The most popular large ball team sport in the country right now is basketball. And basketball is continuing to grow. I'm glad to say I saw this trend early and played the game from the age of eight. Basketball has huge advantages over rugby; there are fewer players on a team, you can play 3x3 and 5x5 these days, the equipment is cheap, and every player on the court has a chance of scoring. 

Of course, NZ has other sports that attract the young; anything to do with boats and anything with a motor in it is always attractive. That's why NZ has such a strong record in all forms of motorsport, sailing, rowing and kayaking. I used to kayak in my summers, and so once again I'm proud to say I saw the trend early.

Where did rugby go wrong? The problem with the game lies in both the way the game is managed globally and how the game is played within NZ. Internationally, the rules are always changing. Basically, you need a PhD in laws and data analytics to keep up with the changes. NZ has done fairly well with this, but the stress always remains and players are put off. Then, locally the way the game is played has changed. Teams these days prefer to seek collision and run over the top of opponents, instead of seeking to avoid collision and evade tackles. The style favoured these days has mothers preventing their children from taking up a sport that may injure. Also, the style adopted is itself less efficient and means teams often do not score because they're looking to go through an obstacle, instead of going around it. 

Sports that are resurgent in NZ include athletics, with a Kiwi man now being the reigning Olympic gold medallist in the high jump. NZ produces quality competitors in field events and is once again producing good track athletes. I think young Kiwis are attracted to athletics due to its instant reward for effort and ability. If you win, you win, and referees have little to do with the outcome. 

This is the trend as I see it; basketball teams and athletics, along with boats and motorsports. 

The Dreaded TMO

Naturally, all of New Zealand are talking about the Television Match Official, or TMO. The TMO played a critical role in the Rugby World Cup 2023, especially in the final.

Everyone is calling for consistency in decision making. I agree, but don't feel inconsistency is what determined the outcome of the match. 

I do believe the TMO played a critical part and did influence the outcome, but I'm not seeing people understand how this was done. The TMO slowed the game down, allowing pauses to occur, and this allowed the weaker team, the team noticeably running out of gas to have timeouts, regroup, and set their defense again. This helped South Africa as the game wore on as they were the team that needed the rests.

Think politically too; World Rugby want to expand the game. If New Zealand are always winning, people other than rugby purists are not going to be so interested. Every year, new laws come along to try and neuter the power of the NZ game, and now we have match officials actively interfering.

This is statement of fact, not sour grapes. NZ had their chance to win and blew it. Credit goes to South Africa, but the rugby governing body have got to sort this nonsense out, they're turning rugby into something akin to American Football, with constant stoppages.

Rugby Explained to a German

With the Rugby World Cup final looming, a German visiting Ireland wrote to the local newspaper looking for an explanation of the rules. Here's the response:

South Africa's Collapse Imminent?

A big call from South Africa's former Post Office CEO, Mark Barnes. Clearly the world is sitting on the precipice.

 

Rugby World Cup 2019 - South Africa World Cup Champions

South Africa beat England 32-12. No tries for England who were on the back foot almost the whole game. The Springboks played to their strengths and kept field position, with the English pinned in their own half. Eventually the points came. Very sensible tactics from South Africa; kick for position, defend stoutly, put pressure on set pieces, kick the goals and seal the win with tries toward the end.

For me the decisive and most telling moment was in the first half, the Springboks up 6-3. England were hard on attack, threatening to score a try. Time and again they mounted attacks only for South Africa to push them back. South Africa eventually gave away a penalty, the score then stood at 6-6 when it could have been 6-10. England looked dejected, from that point on they never looked like scoring a try. South Africa were prepared to put their bodies on the line, several players suffered game ending injuries as a result of that defensive effort, but the team didn't buckle.

As a footnote, thought has to turn to whether England peaked too early. They played the perfect game against New Zealand in their semi-final, making it very hard for them to get back up for the final a week later.

Lawrence Dallaglio Deluded

Apparently, the former captain of England's rugby team, Lawrence Dallaglio thinks if England win the 2019 World Cup final against South Africa, that it would be the greatest rugby World Cup victory of all time.

Err, newsflash, the greatest final has already been played and that was in 1995, the game was between South Africa and New Zealand's All Blacks, a game that was won by the Springboks in overtime. It's great because of the political and social significance of the result. It united a fractured country. Nelson Mandela famously wore the Springbok uniform when greeting the players.

Then in second place we have the greatest feat, New Zealand going back-to-back in 2011 and 2015. Truly remarkable. That's similar to Brazil in soccer going back-to-back, 1958 and 1962.

If England do win in 2019 it can at least be said to be a proper win. England previously won a World Cup in 2003, a soft world cup that as they didn't defeat New Zealand on the way through.

However, I don't think England are going to win in 2019. I predict that will be South Africa, for the simple reason they have more to play for. They desperately want to equal NZ's three victories, and put themselves in place to score a back-to-back and in so doing go to the top with four titles. Watching the semi-finals, England will have to get back up again after playing out of their skins, while South Africa played in a very measured and calculating way against Wales. They'll have the reserves of endurance needed to win.

RWC 2019 Semi-Final South Africa v Wales

South Africa go through to the Rugby World Cup final against England, beating Wales 19-16. It was a tight contest but South Africa had the better bench while Wales had a couple of injuries, forcing them to make replacements earlier than expected. The Springboks were able to capitalise on this slight advantage.

I'm picking South Africa for the championship. My reasoning is twofold; England have already climbed Everest but to win the final they now have to climb K2. Meanwhile the Springboks must have the feeling they've been let out of jail after their loss to the All Blacks at the start of the tournament. They'll be out to steal the title from England, and all round I think they've got the talent to do it. South Africa by 10.