New Zealand is going to have to get used to its all-conquering rugby team ceasing to be the powerhouse it once was. They've just gone down to South Africa 27-31 in a game they should have put to bed in the second half. Admittedly, they were playing away at Ellis Park, a stadium with a fearsome reputation, much like NZ's own Eden Park.
Rugby is not as popular as it once was in NZ, but even then there is a lot of misinformation being peddled about NZ's rugby history. Before the Second World War, rugby was not NZ's most popular sport, that was tennis (and croquet), followed closely by golf. Evidence of this can be seen across the country when visiting old parks, they always have tennis courts and often also have a nine hole golf course handy as well. However, these days newly created recreation areas have skateboard and BMX areas, and a basketball half-court.
Although, when talking large ball team sports, rugby did dominate, perhaps sitting in third place overall. Then, when servicemen returned from the war, they were keen to play a physical contact sport and they had their sons take up the game as well. Rugby took off, with ascendency being reached in the 1970's and 1980's, culminating in NZ winning the first Rugby World Cup in 1987.
There is a parallel here with Uruguay winning the very first Soccer World Cup in 1930. Both NZ and Uruguay have small populations but very good football teams. However, over time Uruguay has been surpassed by other countries. They're still good, among the best in fact, but they haven't won a World Cup since 1950. NZ had better brace itself for a similar slide.
For NZ, part of the problem is player depth. The most popular large ball team sport in the country right now is basketball. And basketball is continuing to grow. I'm glad to say I saw this trend early and played the game from the age of eight. Basketball has huge advantages over rugby; there are fewer players on a team, you can play 3x3 and 5x5 these days, the equipment is cheap, and every player on the court has a chance of scoring.
Of course, NZ has other sports that attract the young; anything to do with boats and anything with a motor in it is always attractive. That's why NZ has such a strong record in all forms of motorsport, sailing, rowing and kayaking. I used to kayak in my summers, and so once again I'm proud to say I saw the trend early.
Where did rugby go wrong? The problem with the game lies in both the way the game is managed globally and how the game is played within NZ. Internationally, the rules are always changing. Basically, you need a PhD in laws and data analytics to keep up with the changes. NZ has done fairly well with this, but the stress always remains and players are put off. Then, locally the way the game is played has changed. Teams these days prefer to seek collision and run over the top of opponents, instead of seeking to avoid collision and evade tackles. The style favoured these days has mothers preventing their children from taking up a sport that may injure. Also, the style adopted is itself less efficient and means teams often do not score because they're looking to go through an obstacle, instead of going around it.
Sports that are resurgent in NZ include athletics, with a Kiwi man now being the reigning Olympic gold medallist in the high jump. NZ produces quality competitors in field events and is once again producing good track athletes. I think young Kiwis are attracted to athletics due to its instant reward for effort and ability. If you win, you win, and referees have little to do with the outcome.
This is the trend as I see it; basketball teams and athletics, along with boats and motorsports.
