Installed Generation Capacity
NZ does not have the installed generation capacity to power a sizeable fleet of EV's. If NZ ever did get a sizeable EV fleet, then electricity prices would skyrocket. The situation would be so bad, the entire country would need to go back to living like they were in the nineteenth century, with candles for lighting and cooking over a wood burning stove.
Electricity Industry Not Built for EV's
When NZ's economic planners were structuring NZ's electricity supply, they did not provide for an EV fleet. When the automobile was invented battery powered cars were tried and they failed as all EV's do.
Car manufacturers looked at various gases and steam, but the petrol and diesel powered internal combustion engine won hands down. That's why almost all cars are powered by fossil fuels through an internal combustion engine. They work well and provide the greatest utility.
What was left for electricity was in powering houses, offices and fixed industry. Most of this power goes into heating homes across the country. Winter is a time of high demand.
So what did the planners do? They looked at NZ's large water resources and figured that if they built large hydro lakes then they'd fill during the summer when the snow melted, making that potential energy in the lake available to be transferred into electrical energy through the winter. There have been a few hiccups with this, notably during winters delivering little snow, meaning the coming summer didn't get the melt and the following winter ran low on available electrical supply. If the lakes are empty, you have no power.
Most of NZ's electricity comes from these hydro lakes. But what can make things worse? Any demand that draws on the lakes during the summer. This is the problem with EV's as NZ car use is highest during the summer months. If NZ was to rely on EV's, it would be equivalent to every home in NZ turning on a heater day after day, 360 days of the year. This would mean no electricity at all as the hydro lakes would be empty.
EV users would then need to turn to their own devices, most likely petrol or diesel generators due to their reliability. This defeats the whole purpose of EV's.
Decentralised vs Centralised Generation
When addressing the problem of demand no matter the time of year, the call is then made to install the generators, get it done. This sounds like a willingness to get somewhere but it too falls short. That's because most quick-fix solutions involve decentralised models, and they don't work. What's decentralised? That's where the home has its own solar panels, maybe a battery, and possibly wind turbine or micro hydro. Sounds good, but it isn't so good.
Is a decentralised model practical? How can an 85 year old get onto the roof to clean those solar panels? When you move house what will the system be like where you move to, and will it have been maintained? What about apartment blocks? A decentralised model adds complexity where none is desirable. The consumer wants to flick a switch and voila, the lights go on.
The decentralised model is expensive, is subject to uncertain output, and trusts millions of households to play their part - it's a recipe for disaster.
Centralised generation is the sensible approach and the only way forward, but once again the problem is the expense. NZ does not have the money to install enough generation to power an EV fleet. It doesn't matter what the means of generation are, the money simply isn't there. NZ would be bankrupted trying to install the required capacity (the calculations are provided in my book Snob's Guide to New Zealand).
Losses
EV zealots forget that moving to electricity harms the liquid fuels industry. I think this is the killer blow to any EV's being allowed on the road. Who has paid for the roads? The car user paying through fuel tax, that's who. That revenue begins to dry up but may be replaced by similar charges for EV's, but the service stations and fuel distributors will suffer losses and need to downsize. This also adds to the miles car users will need to travel to refuel. The government will be deprived of fuel tax revenues, along with less income tax revenue after worker layoffs and business failures, and the whole economy suffers because transport becomes less efficient.
Bear in mind EV's would not be able to replace all cars. Police cars and other emergency responders would need to be powered by the internal combustion engine (imagine the bad guys getting away because the cop car battery was low, or the ambulance failing to arrive) and they'd be faced with the same nuisance of not being able to find fuel readily.
Conclusion
There is nothing good to be said about EV's. If you want a formula that bankrupts New Zealand, then EV's are the perfect storm.
In a later blog post I'll address how NZ should approach things. And last year I posted the following about why exactly EV's are useless cars: https://kenhorlor.blogspot.com/2018/07/why-electric-cars-are-no-good.html
Edit to add: After Hurricane Ian many EV's caught fire - why? https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/120/742/623/playable/26b11f358efd82f3.mp4
No comments:
Post a Comment