That's right, following on from why Mixed-member Proportional (MMP) representation is not working and the problem of the tail wagging the dog, I should mention the obvious flaw with MMP as it relates to New Zealand. The problem is it will eventually lead to an effective dictatorship.
Okay, sobering thought I know, but here's how it will happen. Over time a plethora of divided interests will develop. That's because any party that manages to get 5% of the party vote gets influence far beyond its level of support without even winning an electorate seat. The incentive is to split and go after a smaller share with more power attached. The system is designed to deliver this outcome. It wasn't done intentionally but them's the breaks. Stupidity has no bounds.
First Past the Post (FPP) differs in that it works the opposite way to MMP. FPP starts out with many and varied parties, but over time that boils down to straight head-to-head contests. In NZ that became National against Labour from 1936 after creation of the National party.
The trend with MMP has seen clustering of interest groups since inception in the mid 1990's. Examples are the Alliance with Labour, and ACT party with National. In time the Alliance dwindled after starting to fall apart, while ACT lost steam. The Maori party rose and fell, the same with United Future, leaving only NZ First and the Greens as minor players.
Superficially it appears we are back where things started. Minority governments still occur frequently, and the two parties that dominated FPP from 1936, still dominate under MMP. For now that would be correct, it seems little has changed but it is a mistake to think like that as the landscape has changed. If you're walking around on Mars it may look like the Moon but it isn't. Get the idea?
This is where it gets difficult. FPP started out as a collection of disparate interests in NZ and became a political duopoly over time. The opposite will happen with MMP, it has started out as a near political duopoly, then will split apart into numerous smaller elements. The final coup de gras will be accidental. By chance one party will manage to get over the 5% threshold and win all the list seats while the rest of the parties will fail to meet the threshold and gain no seats, their votes wasted, or they will have electorate seats only. Note - when this happens. I'm not even suggested an if, as it is a virtual certainty to happen, just when exactly I don't know.
When this happens the successful party will have 75% of the seats in parliament so long as they have about a third of the electorate seats as well. That means they can replace entrenched legislation, and entrench new laws. They can do things like remove the head of state. They could change the electoral cycle to 99 years, and entrench it. Do you see?
The reason this can happen is because NZ has a unicameral legislature. There is no senate. Therefore no safeguards. NZ has a deeply flawed electoral system and lacks the guts to be honest about it. Every election the country throws the dice. Eventually it's going to deliver a monstrously unjust scenario and all anyone can do is pray the dictator is benevolent.
[ Just a note: think about Coke. Does Coca-Cola just sell Coke? How does Coca-Cola get to number 1? They do so by selling all kinds of drinks, to different preferences. That's how MMP will play out in NZ over time. But it could end up with just one player holding the keys to the castle; except it'll be for all the marbles, not just shelf space in a supermarket. NZ has blundered badly and may lose its country as a result. It's that serious.]
No comments:
Post a Comment