US President, Donald J. Trump announced a ceasefire effective 4am Tuesday local Israel time. So, who won?
Look at it like this, using a Medieval lens; when an aggressor lays siege to your city walls, but then walks back hurling insults but the aggressor stops throwing things, those behind the city walls have won, they saw off the siege.
In context, Israel attacked Iran, and the US joined in. Now, twelve days later the siege has been lifted and those under siege can stand there victorious.
Why was a ceasefire called so quickly? I have a few theories:
- The US was running out of interceptor missiles. These missiles are very expensive and time-consuming to make and so there is a limited supply. Israel was churning through them at a rate of 4:1, four interceptors for every incoming. Maybe Iran wasn't even loading warheads onto their cheaper missiles.
- The depleting stocks of interceptor missiles cannot be easily replaced as China no longer supplies rare earths to the US for military purposes.
- Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz, shutting off 20% of all oil used on Earth. But, that would not affect Iran all that much as they can still deal, as can China and Russia their allies. Fuel prices in the West would rise unsustainably if the Strait was closed.
- Iran's midget submarines and mine technology are advanced and comprise a real threat. The midget subs can hide in the shallows, where hunter killer subs cannot go, but pounce when needed. Their mines are designed to stay on the bottom, dormant until they detect a ship above, then they explode. These mines are very difficult to detect and neutralise.
- Western Europe said they weren't going to join in, as destabilising the region would mean a flood of refugees into Europe.
These are just some ideas, somewhat speculative, but you get the idea. Donald Trump has suffered a huge humiliation, he couldn't knock out Iran's nuclear capability, and Israel is on its knees.
Update: Pres. Trump has shown frustration with Israel since the ceasefire has come into effect. This lends support to the idea, that the whole choreographed exercise of strikes between the US and Iran was designed by the US to shut Netanyahu up. Having supported Israel, the US can sit back and say they did what they could, and Israel is in no position to whine. Iran, for their part get to claim victory.
Can the world get any weirder. Well, OK, time for a scamdemic now then?
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