March 22, 2015

The Last Time Oil Price Collapsed

The Last Time Oil Price Collapsed

That's right, the last time we found ourselves in this position was late 2008 and the start of the Global Financial Crisis. Michael Snyder provides the following analysis, read it and weep;

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This

Now let's be careful, I'm NOT saying the oil price drop is causing anything, what I'm saying is it's indicative, a symptom of a wider malaise, a general lack of demand for anything. Why do people need more stuff ? We've got enough already.

Less demand, lower production, less employment, lower incomes; recession.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/last-time-oil-price-collapsed-ken-horlor?trk=prof-post

March 02, 2015

Basketball Efficiency Rating and Analysis

Basketball Efficiency Rating and Analysis

I'm a keen Basketball player and in the past have coached quite a bit. All coaches want to know how their team is performing, as individuals and as a team, so they can address training in those areas which need attention. There are any number of readily available formulas out there which may be of help, the one I like the most being either a linear weighted....

Player Efficiency Rating ( PER )

or a basketball version of VORP ( Value Over Replacement Player ):-

Here is a simple VORP = (pts+0.75*orb+0.25*drb+0.5*ast+stl+0.33*blk)/(1.5*(fga+(.44*fta)+tov + ((0.75*orb+0.25*drb+0.5*ast+stl+0.33*blk)/2)+(mp/4))).

Most people will be familiar with PER, though it can be more easily dealt with if you take each playing element and give it a weighting, then calculate your total. I do it that way, here is someone who has done it also, though his weightings you may like to change as they appear incorrect ( at least at my examination ):-

The link to explain this methodology

[ FGM x 85.910+ Steals x 53.897+ 3PTM x 51.757+ FTM x 46.845+ Blocks x 39.190+ Offensive_Rebx 39.190+ Assists x 34.677+ Defensive_Reb x 14.707- Foul x 17.174- FT_Miss x 20.091- FG_Miss x 39.190- TO x 53.897 ] x (1 / Minutes).

These calculations are worked from readily available game statistics. But they don't tell the whole story as they tend to be offensively biased and don't accurately measure defensive specialists, who we'll all agree are pretty important. Thinking about this I've come up with my own system and weightings for each factor. I generally work it as a ratio not a raw number, but this is the way I look at the game:-