Update: Strait of Hormuz

The amount of oil and gas being carried through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, from an average of over a hundred tankers daily during February, down to an average of six tankers daily in March. However, there is a trend of some tankers running the strait by sticking close to the Omani shore, while others are paying the toll to Iran and going through the toll gate they've set up between Larak Island and Qeshm Island (not a literal toll gate, but a passage through which ships must travel).

Russian oil is back in the mix, too, and Southeast Asian refineries appear to be using this oil as additional feedstock.

What may happen is the world gets to a point where the price of fuel is simply high, all the time, with a new normal being that Iran has control of a huge chunk of global supply. 

Countries like Australia and New Zealand will have to suck this up, for now, but then move swiftly to self-sufficiency as they both have the resources. They lack the ability to process these resources, and so they must move to fully industrialise.

Australia's Military Compromised

I wondered how long it would take for the penny to drop. Without fuel, Australia won't be able to defend itself.

Reaction to Trump's Speech

Interesting initial reaction, I'll check over the next few hours whether the markets react positively or negatively.

Trump Addresses the Nation

I watched it live, but I have to confess I'm none the wiser. President Trump said what he'd already posted on social media, and left a lot up in the air. What, exactly, was that all about? 

Australia Allows Heavier Loads

It makes sense to allow trucks to carry more each load, it will save fuel, although roads will get knocked about more.

Australia Fuel Crisis, Food Shortages Loom?

With 25 million mouths to feed, how will Australia feed its people affordably if the diesel and fertiliser costs soar?

Australia and New Zealand Get Roasted

Deserved shellacking this:

For New Zealand, a whole series of decisions amounted to sabotage.

Fuel Crisis Needs Urgent Action

Both Australia's and New Zealand's governments refuse to take action. It is as if they want the countries to fail.

Can you ride a horse? I can.

Australia to Underwrite Extra Fuel Imports

Getting the idea New Zealand? Do something. 

No idea if this measure will help, but at least it's an attempt.

Australia's Fuel Crisis Is Real

Australia and New Zealand are so cooked. The people running things are morons on an epic scale. 

US Defeat?

The suggestion is that the US has used up its ordnance, especially its anti-missile defenses. That explains the sudden shift, from 'unconditional surrender' to now asking for diplomacy. Iran, for its part, seems to have more missiles and drones still. The drones are simple and cheap to make, and being made of balsa wood are very hard to detect with radar. 

Israel is vulnerable. They are small and present an easy target. Iran is not so vulnerable as they present a much larger target. I note that Iran's order of aerial attack is quite clever; to begin with they fired drones without warheads. Nevertheless, they had to be taken down at great expense. Then, gradually Iran ramped up, adding warheads to their drones, then increasing the size of warheads fired by missile. Thus, as Israel's defenses depleted, the weight delivered by Iran grew exponentially.

The uprising within Iran did not eventuate. There appears no groundswell of support for a revolution. 

The risk now is that the Persian Gulf may end up being Iran's lake. I read somewhere that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain have left their small principalities, with no immediate intention to return. It looks as if they know Iran has emerged the winner.

46 Days Left

New Zealand has 46 days of diesel left and has not taken the oil crisis seriously enough - yet. Meanwhile, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency with 45 days left.

Collapse of Australia Looms

Founder and CEO of Clime Investment Management, John Abernethy, explains where Australia is headed, given the course they're on. You might as well add New Zealand to the list, everything he says applies to that country as well.

How Some Countries Are Responding

Some countries are taking action, while others like New Zealand and Australia, have their heads in the sand:

Energy Lockdowns Coming?

This will be bigger than 2020. We are swiftly heading into energy lockdowns, as promoted by the likes of the WEF.

One possibility is they'll corral people into sectors. Initially, they'll call this a temporary measure to minimise fuel use. But, it'll become compulsory, and to access services your digital ID will be required.

Market Manipulation?

It does have the appearance of market manipulation. Donald Trump set a 48-hour deadline, and the markets fell significantly. Then, with the deadline looming, he came up with a potential deal, and the markets rose significantly. Anyone who knew of these announcements could have made a fortune. What do you think?

Size Comparison: Iran vs Europe

People wondering why it is very hard to subjugate Iran need to consider its size. Iran is quite large and mountainous. No doubt they've dispersed their ordnance. It'd be almost impossible to find it, and their missiles and drones are launched from mobile units.

Iran v Europe

Asian Countries Introduce Fuel Restrictions

Here's a quick outline of what some Asian countries are doing to ration fuel. 

New Zealand Fuel Crisis - Action Required NOW

Here's my plan for sorting this:

1. Emergency declared under existing legislation, wartime economy. Government puts the entire liquid fuels infrastructure under direct government control.

2. Get the University of Canterbury and University of Auckland mechanical and chemical engineers on board, together with the NZ Army engineers (Sappers);

3. They've got 60 days to come up with a distillation solution producing enough diesel to keep the wheels and machinery moving;

4. The government enters the spot market for diesel, anywhere, any quality;

5. Get all farmers and transport operators to disable or remove their emissions systems, and get ready to run regular high sulphur fuel;

6. Bring the fuel in through existing shore facilities, price controlled and distributed according to direct state orders;

7. Arrest anyone who gets in the way, and prosecute any price gouging.

8. In the medium term, once this framework is established within 48 hours, begin feasibility studies on immediate production of biodisesel and lignite to diesel;

9. With immediate effect, ban the export of NZ crude oil and LPG;

10. Import LPG conversion kits for cars and vans.

11. With all this underway and framework stabilised, then worry about fertiliser (this prioritises tractors, machinery and trucks over chemicals in the ground - it is what it is).

Now, get on with it. Why is the government not taking action? Reports are that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, it will take 6 months to get the flow normal again. But, the likelihood is this conflict will be all year at least. We must act NOW.

Lignite to Diesel - NZ's Shelved Project

New Zealand should start making lignite to diesel and urea (fertilizer). The feasibility studies have been done, and the resource exists in limitless quantities. 

The following report is available on a NZ government department website. Make it happen NZ.

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/assets/8fb7b2c240/liquid-fuels-from-lignite.pdf

Internationally, the demand for crude oil is increasing, at a time when many experts are predicting that the peak in oil production will occur sometime over the next 20 years. This combined with concerns about the security of oil supply, particularly with the current political instability in several oil producing regions, means that the price of oil has the potential to rise to unprecedented levels over the next two decades. New Zealand depends on imported oil for 99% [MED 2006] of its transportation fuels. If the cost of crude oil rises as predicted and the possibility of serious supply interruptions becomes more pressing, then alternatives need to be sought now to avoid serious transportation fuel shortages in the future.